ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 08.04.2025
ASX Stock Market Outlook
The ASX 200 is set for a surprisingly resilient open, with SPI futures up 0.75% to 7392. That’s a notable turnaround considering the red sea across global markets last week and escalating fears over trade wars, sticky inflation, and geopolitical flashpoints.
This morning’s futures pop may prove deceptive. Under the surface, there’s turmoil. The macro picture remains grim and this rally could fade fast.
Overnight Wrap: Confusion, Volatility, and a Hint of Panic
Wall Street was mixed, with a jittery rebound attempt failing to mask deep underlying concerns.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures dropped 0.25%
NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures managed a mild gain +0.14%
E-mini Dow Futures sank 0.95%
Not a washout like Friday, and that’s about the best we can say for it. The VIX futures remain elevated, above 30, indicating that further falls could follow.
Inflation remains the monster under the bed. The stubborn stickiness of core prices has rattled the ‘soft landing’ thesis, and now with tariffs layering on fresh cost pressures, traders are bracing for stagflation.
Bond markets saw a sharp repricing:
US 2Y yield surged 3.95% to 3.788%
US 10Y yield jumped 5.08% to 4.203%
That yield spike tells you everything: fear of more hikes, higher inflation, and no pivot in sight.
Europe took a heavy hit:
DAX Futures collapsed 3.62%
EURO STOXX 50 Futures tumbled 4.16%
STOXX 600 Futures down 3.90%
FTSE 100 Futures fell 4.90%
Commodities rolled over, with Gold Futures falling 2.04% to US$2973.60 and WTI Crude down 2.08% to US$60.70. Even the usual hedges are showing cracks under pressure.
In Asia, however, the picture is more complicated:
Nikkei 225 Futures soared 5.01% on a mix of yen weakness and domestic positioning
FTSE China A50 Futures up 1.64%
Hang Seng Futures down 0.64%
Asia’s rally looks like a positioning squeeze, not a change in fundamentals. The Taiwan situation is deteriorating, and weak South Korean trade data is flashing regional recession risk.
The Play Today
Markets are trying to bounce, but the setup remains treacherous. Today’s rally in SPI futures may be technical — a reaction off support. But macro headwinds are gathering force.
Gold is weaker, yet gold miners may still see support from safe-haven flows. Healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples should outperform, but don’t expect immunity from the broader volatility.
Cyclicals are a no-go zone right now. Resources, banks, and travel names will likely remain under pressure.
Currency markets signal stress:
AUD Futures down 0.75% to 0.59775
Yen Futures down 0.68% to 0.006817 — a reversal from Friday’s haven bid
The Aussie dollar’s fall is telling. Despite a positive open, investors are moving to protect capital.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Thursday: FOMC minutes, China CPI, RBA Governor Bullock speaks, US CPI
Friday: UK GDP, US PPI
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
ASX S&P200 SPI Future
The ASX SPI Future managed to find its feet on a support level from January 2024. This is roughly what a twig holding a boulder would look like.
SPI - ASX S&P 200 Futures (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Austin Engineering (ASX:ANG)
Austin Engineering has held up surprisingly well. We continue to watch it and suspect it could bounce hard when the market itself finds its feet. It could benefit strongly from this whole tariff nightmare, and the falling AUD.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
