ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 09.04.2025
ASX Stock Market Outlook
The ASX 200 is poised for a rough open, with SPI futures down 1.89% to 7,391. That’s a sharp reversal from yesterday’s hopeful tone and speaks volumes about where global sentiment sits right now — jittery, defensive, and primed for volatility.
Still, don’t lose your head. We’ve seen these sharp futures drops before, only to watch buyers sneak in by midday. There’s real fragility out there, but also resilience. Today might be one of those sessions where early pain opens the door to tactical bounce opportunities. But you’ve got to be selective.
Overnight Wrap: Confusion, Volatility, and a Hint of Panic
Wall Street staggered lower, but the real action was offshore — especially in Europe, where optimism punched through the doom and gloom.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures fell 0.94%
NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures slid 1.00%
E-mini Dow Futures dropped 0.86%
That’s not catastrophic, but it is a reality check for anyone still clinging to a soft landing dream. Tech took the biggest hit, as the market second-guessed stretched valuations ahead of tomorrow’s all-important US CPI print.
But check out Europe — a proper contrast:
DAX Futures up 2.50%
FTSE 100 Futures up 2.72%
EURO STOXX 50 up 2.69%
STOXX 600 up 2.93%
That’s a rally with teeth, likely powered by short-covering and relief that ECB policymakers didn’t drop fresh hawkish bombs overnight. European industrials and value stocks caught a strong bid, hinting that global positioning may be getting rebalanced away from stretched US tech.
Gold and oil told their own story last night — and it wasn’t a cheery one.
Gold Futures edged up 0.20% to US$2,996.10 — technically green, but far from decisive
Micro WTI Crude Futures fell 2.13% to US$58.31 — dropping hard through support
Crude under US$60 is significant. It says traders are finally pricing in slower global demand, especially from Asia. Keep a close eye on China’s CPI and loan data Thursday — it could confirm the slowdown narrative or blow it up.
In currencies:
AUD Futures dipped 0.22% to 0.59560 — still under pressure, but not collapsing
Yen Futures edged up 0.22% to 0.006899 — a calm read after recent weakness
EUR/USD Futures firmed slightly to 1.1014
The Aussie’s slide below 0.60 is now sticky — it’s staying there, and that reflects global caution. Risk-off flows are favouring the US dollar, while the yen’s modest bounce hints that traders are hedging for turbulence.
The Play Today
The usual caution in this environment is required. The markets are changing fast. It’s a minute-to-minute race, so if you’re in the action, stay vigilant. The upside is that there are lots of opportunities if you can get on moves early.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Thursday: FOMC minutes, China CPI, RBA Governor Bullock speaks, US CPI
Friday: UK GDP, US PPI
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
VIX Future
The VIX - CBOE Volatility Index Futures has lost its upward momentum for the time being, suggesting that things aren’t getting worse, at least for today.
VIX - CBOE Volatility Index Futures (Source: TradingView)
ASX Stock to Watch: Medallion Metals (ASX:MM8)
Gold producers are punching through highs again. The attention is steadily shifting towards the riskier end of the market, with explorers and developers coming into focus. Medallion is on the way back up after a deep pullback.
ASX Stocks to Watch (Source: TradingView)
