ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 10.04.2025

DAILY BRIEF

10 Apr

Written By MIQ

ASX Stock Market Outlook

ASX 200 futures are pointing to an explosive open, surging 6.62%, after Wall Street ripped higher overnight in response to a dramatic move from the White House. Trump unveiled a new tariff regime slashing duties to 10% across the board for 90 days—except for China, which now faces a brutal 125% rate.

This is not policy normalisation. Trump has found his target. It’s China he wants to fight with. A trade war on many fronts spells disaster. By narrowing the focus to China, the markets see a path through the chaos.

It also shows that Trump is not a complete maniac. He might play tough, but at the end of the day, he will negotiate and find a way through. He’s a business guy, after all, and the markets falling on his watch will sting.

Overnight Wrap

Wall Street lit up like it just saw the end of the world postponed. The S&P 500 rocketed 9.38%, the Nasdaq went vertical with an 11.86% gain, and even the Dow, slowest of the bunch, charged 7.85% higher. Volatility was annihilated, VIX down 35.68% to 25.19, as risk poured back in and hedges evaporated.

Trump’s move effectively re-opened trade lanes with the rest of the world while putting China in a vice. The 90-day reset gives everyone else a 10% tariff window while China gets slammed with 125%. That’s not subtle. It’s leverage—applied precisely and publicly. Wall Street took the hint. This is pressure, not permanence.

Bonds sold off as fear drained from the system. The 2-year yield surged to 3.91%, and the 10-year lifted to 4.33%. Commodities are up as well. Gold jumped 2.98% to US$3,079/oz, crude added 4.65%, and copper caught a bid. Risk appetite even filtered into currencies, with AUD/USD climbing 2.98% to 0.6147.

The Play Today

This is an all-out risk rally, and the ASX will ride it hard. Tech could tear higher. Energy plays are back on the radar.

China-sensitive names may hesitate, but that’s noise. The broader play is clear. the US has chosen its adversary, and everyone else gets a pass. That sets up Australian stocks—especially globally-leveraged midcaps—as key beneficiaries.

The positioning unwind could get violent, sentiment has flipped, and the crowd is chasing the upside. Beware of getting caught short. There will be a scramble. The question is now how long until Trump does something else shocking.