ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief 14.04.2025
ASX Stock Market Outlook
ASX 200 futures are up 0.23%, a calm open that belies the stormy energy building in global markets. Wall Street put on a solid performance on Friday, rallying hard after Trump stunned the world with his latest trade manoeuvre. This sweeping tariff reset slashes duties to 10% across the board for most trading partners but jacks up tariffs on Chinese imports to a brutal 125%.
Allies and partners get a clean(ish) slate for 90 days. China gets punished. And just like that, markets flipped from fearing global chaos to seeing a clear opportunity window. Risk is back on the menu.
Australia is caught in a strange spot. We’re a China-leveraged economy, sure—but we’re also a major exporter of commodities the world still needs, and we’ve got diversified trading partners.
Investors will pay close attention to whether this is a bear market rally, with further falls to follow.
Overnight Wrap
The S&P 500 jumped 1.68%, the Nasdaq 100 ripped 1.75%, and the Dow climbed 1.51%, with big tech and cyclicals leading the charge. A massive sentiment shift has followed Trump’s tariff announcement, which the market took as a sign that rationality might just prevail in the end.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is squarely back in the mid-twenties, taking some pressure out of the system. The big question now is what deals Trump can do in the next 90 days to allay market fears.
In Europe, the DAX surged 0.79%, FTSE 100 rose 0.47%, and EURO STOXX 50 added 0.23%. Even the Nikkei climbed 0.60%, and the Hang Seng posted a solid 0.97% gain. However, China’s A50 Index slipped 0.13%, which is a good result given the ongoing rift between China and the US.
Bond yields rose across the board, reflecting reduced demand for safety and an uptick in inflation expectations. The Aussie 10-year jumped 2.59% to 4.44%, while the US 10-year yield rose 1.63% to 4.50%, and the 2-year yield moved up to 3.975%. This is a bear steepening—a classic risk-on bond move.
In currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.79% to US$0.6286, while the Japanese yen firmed slightly, and the euro moved up 0.86%. Commodity-linked FX is catching a bid as global growth hopes get a pulse again.
Gold climbed 2.25% to US$3,446.7, a rare move in tandem with equities. Crude surged 2.38%, reflecting the broader reflation vibe. Markets are bracing for volatility but leaning into optimism.
The Play Today
Expect cautious optimism in the markets today. The US tariff circus will continue, we have no doubt. The market will remain wary for some time. So staying alert and nimble remains key.
In Australia, the focus will shift more and more to the upcoming election over the coming weeks. So, watch out for big-ticket economic promises that the market could react to.
Also, it’s a short week with the Easter break. Volumes could be lighter, meaning bigger moves in smaller stocks could occur.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Canada CPI
Wednesday: UK CPI, US Retail Sales, Canada Rate Decision
Thursday: Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Australian Unemployment, EU Rate Decision
Friday: Public Holiday
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
ASX 200
The bounce in the ASX 200 is looking fragile. Downward momentum remains strong.
ASX200 Index (Source: TradingView)
