ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief
ASX Stock Market Outlook
ASX 200 futures are up 0.23% teeing up a modestly green open. Not a breakout, but enough to suggest that investors are cautiously leaning back into risk after last week’s storm.
The Trump administration announced Chinese tariff exemptions for tech products such as smartphones and computers. While a positive step, uncertainty about future moves lingers.
Australia sits in the awkward middle. We rely on China, yes, but we’re also a supplier of global essentials — iron ore, LNG, agri — and a strategic ally to the US. That’s why we’re not seeing panic here, just a wait-and-see mode.
Overnight Wrap
Wall Street lit up:
S&P 500 E-mini Futures up 0.92%
NASDAQ 100 surged 0.68%
Dow Futures climbed 0.85%
Trump’s tariff reshuffle stunned the Street. Big Tech cheered the carveout for electronics — Apple gained +2.3%, Nvidia up +3.9%, and even Intel jumped +2.8% on hopes that cross-border semiconductor supply chains won’t be kneecapped.
But China got no love. The punitive hike to 125% tariffs on Chinese imports is provocative, and Beijing’s reaction will be the next shoe to drop. So far, silence — but don’t count on that lasting.
Europe played follow-the-leader with conviction:
DAX Futures up 2.66%
FTSE 100 +1.95%
EURO STOXX 50 +2.48%
STOXX 600 +2.59%
That’s a classic short-covering rally. European industrials and exporters saw a clear path to relief as US tariffs softened for allies. Investors rotated into cyclical and export-heavy names, betting on global trade reopening rather than fragmentation.
Asia caught the glow, but with moderation:
Nikkei 225 Futures up 0.38%
Hang Seng Futures up 0.79%
FTSE China A50 barely moved, up 0.02%
The muted China read tells the story. Beijing knows it’s in the firing line. The rest of Asia — especially export hubs like Japan and South Korea — saw this as a near-term win. But sentiment remains fragile.
The VIX is lingering in the mid-20s, suggesting we aren’t done with Volatility yet.
The Play Today
The futures are firm. The sentiment is bullish. We should see the ASX 200 open higher, led by tech, discretionary, and potentially banks if yields remain steady.
Keep an eye on the tech bounce, with big names the easiest and most obvious plays. China exposure complicates things.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Canada CPI
Wednesday: UK CPI, US Retail Sales, Canada Rate Decision
Thursday: Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Australian Unemployment, EU Rate Decision
Friday: Public Holiday
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
ASX Information Technology Sector
The Information Technology Sector led the charge yesterday. With big falls comes big bounces and plenty of opportunity to catch sharp re-ratings.
ASX200 Index (Source: TradingView)
