ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief
ASX Stock Market Outlook
The ASX 200 futures point to a modestly positive open, up 0.23%, with a lack of meaningful news overnight allowing for a wait-and-see day. China-US trade tensions linger strongly, with investors watching for the next big move.
Technically, we’re back above 7,750, retesting the bottom end of the early April breakdown. There’s a case here for a bear market rally… but no conviction yet. The index has clawed back nearly 600 points from the recent lows, but volumes are light, breadth is mixed, and macro headwinds remain unresolved.
Overnight Wrap
US markets were a tale of three tapes. The NASDAQ 100 eked out a 0.13% gain, buoyed by renewed optimism in the chip space and hopes the worst of the US-China tariff blow hasn’t hit tech supply chains… yet. But elsewhere, the mood turned sour. The S&P 500 dropped 0.23%, and the Dow lost 0.41%, with industrials, banks, and consumer cyclicals absorbing most of the pain.
Traders are digesting Trump’s tariff carveouts, but they’re seeing the bait-and-switch coming from a mile away. Yes, smartphones and semiconductors got a temporary hall pass — but Trump’s advisors have already signalled fresh levies are coming for pharma, green tech, and critical components later this year.
European markets put in their best session in weeks. This wasn’t just relief — it was rotation. Investors piled into cyclicals, autos, and export-heavy names after the White House clarified tariff exemptions would apply to EU-linked supply chains too.
German exporters led the charge, along with UK banks and infrastructure. There’s growing belief that Europe might actually be shielded in the crossfire between Beijing and Washington — not caught in the middle.
Asia’s overnight session was cautious at best and deflated at worst. Tokyo rallied modestly on US tech strength, but Hong Kong and Shanghai drifted lower.
Chinese markets don’t see the latest tariff exemptions as a diplomatic thaw. Beijing’s media channels have gone quiet, and insiders are warning of ‘unpredictable escalations’ if Trump follows through on his promised 125% tariff blanket later this quarter.
Australia, as usual, finds itself awkwardly wedged between its top trading partner and its top security partner. There’s no playbook for this. Just tension management.
The Play Today
Markets are looking for relief — and finding it, barely — but they’re not buying into a full-scale recovery. The tariff relief feels temporary. China's silence feels ominous. And Aussie equities are stuck in the same dilemma they’ve been in for years as global price-takers trying to read a shifting rulebook.
The play remains being nimble and reacting quickly. If the ASX 200 can push through 7,800 with volume and breadth, the setup improves. However, any relief rally can be quickly derailed by another Trump tantrum.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Canada CPI
Wednesday: UK CPI, US Retail Sales, Canada Rate Decision
Thursday: Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Australian Unemployment, EU Rate Decision
Friday: Public Holiday
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
ASX S&P 200 Future
ASXc200 Index (Source: TradingView)
