ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief
ASX Stock Market Outlook
ASX SPI 200 futures are down 0.38% over the long weekend, setting the stage for a weak open as Aussie traders return from the long weekend into a storm of offshore selling.
Technically, we’re hanging right under a ceiling that’s rejected every breakout attempt since early April. That zone now looks more like a trapdoor than a launchpad. Volume’s thinning, market breadth is narrowing, and unless bulls can pull off a miracle rally early, this could be the start of a deeper slide.
There’s no obvious catalyst to support local equities today — just a macro wave crashing down on sentiment.
Overnight Wrap
Wall Street is down heavily.
S&P 500 futures: -2.41%
NASDAQ 100 futures: -2.49%
Dow futures: -2.55%
It was Powell’s hawkish pivot that did the damage. In a speech overnight in Chicago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell killed off the last flicker of rate-cut hope. He drew a direct line between Trump’s rising tariffs and stubborn inflation, warning that price pressures could persist in ways similar to COVID-era shocks — sticky, unpredictable, and embedded in core inflation.
He was very clear in his message. No rate relief is coming, and if it means slower growth, so be it. The market had been holding its breath for a mid-year cut — it just got punched in the gut instead.
The VIX is back up at 28.45. Treasuries rallied hard as safe haven demand soared:
2Y yields down 8bps to 3.769%
10Y yields down 6bps to 4.417%
Meanwhile, energy names got torched. Crude oil futures dropped 2.5% to US$62.41, erasing recent geopolitical premiums. Gold, on the other hand, caught a bid — futures jumped 2.91% to US$3,425.30, as traders ran for cover.
The Play Today
This is a high-alert session for local markets. There’s no domestic data to counter the global narrative, and Aussie stocks are likely to mirror the panic seen in New York. Tech, which staged a mini-recovery last week, looks vulnerable again. Resources and banks — key pillars of the ASX — are facing dual pressure from weaker commodities and fading risk appetite.
Expect relative strength in gold miners after bullion’s sharp move, but everything else is on defence.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Japan CPI
Wednesday: US Flash PMI
Thursday: UK BOE Governor Bailey Speaks
Friday: Aus Public Holiday
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
SPI - ASX S&P 200 Future
ASX 200 Index Future (Source: TradingView)
