ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief
ASX Stock Market Outlook
ASX SPI 200 futures are up 1.28% this morning, following a wall of green from global markets overnight. Overseas traders are returning from the long weekend to a complete sentiment reset, from dread to euphoria, as Wall Street mounts one of its strongest single-session rebounds in weeks.
Volume and market breadth will be key tells at the open. If they confirm the futures lead, we might finally get the breakout that’s eluded us all month.
Overnight Wrap
Wall Street went vertical.
S&P 500 futures: +2.51%
NASDAQ 100 futures: +2.58%
Dow futures: +2.68%
This wasn’t just a short-covering bounce — it was a full-blown risk reset. A combination of soft earnings fears not materialising and a pullback in Fed rate expectations saw traders flood back into megacaps, semis, and AI names. Nvidia jumped, Apple rebounded, and even Tesla got a lift.
The VIX is back down at 26.54, signalling risk is still around, but there’s a path through the darkness.
Meanwhile, the bond market saw volatility in the short end.
2Y yields up 5.2bps to 3.821%
10Y yields down 1.6bps to 4.401%
Markets are starting to think the Fed may have more wiggle room down the track than Powell has let on.
Commodities were a mixed bag. Crude oil futures climbed 2.02% to US$63.67, paring back last week’s steep drop. Gold dipped 0.17% to US$3,419.4 — a calm move given recent volatility.
The Play Today
Aussie tech should fly out of the gate. Nasdaq’s overnight gain is a tailwind for local names like Wisetech (ASX:WTC) and Altium (ASX:ALU), especially after their recent wobbles. Resources are in an interesting spot: oil is up, but gold is flat and iron ore remains under pressure. Expect relative outperformance from energy and lithium stocks over the broader materials sector.
Banks should benefit from the yield steepening story — but don’t expect a massive move there. The real action today is likely to come from high-beta names and beaten-down growth.
Watch volume. If today’s open has follow-through and the ASX clears 8,000, that’s a powerful technical trigger.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Japan CPI
Wednesday: US Flash PMI
Thursday: UK BOE Governor Bailey Speaks
Friday: Aus Public Holiday
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
SPI - ASX S&P 200 Future
ASX 200 Index Future (Source: TradingView)
