ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief
ASX Stock Market Outlook
ASX SPI 200 futures are up 0.16%, a cautiously upbeat start for local equities after Wall Street extended its rally.
The S&P 500 surged 1.64%, led by tech (NASDAQ +2.28%) and cyclicals. The Dow Jones added 1.06%, and the VIX collapsed, softening to 25.44, a sharp fade in volatility premium.
Technically, the ASX 200 is eyeing a push toward the 8,000 level again. If sentiment holds and commodity names find a tailwind, that milestone could be in play today.
Overnight Wrap
US equities ripped higher as optimism around tariff de-escalation and Powell's Fed survival triggered broad-based buying. Strong earnings from big tech (Tesla, Alphabet, Intel reporting today) helped power the NASDAQ.
European markets outperformed even the US, with the Euro Stoxx 50 soaring 2.77% as fears around ECB policy missteps faded and traders chased value in beaten-up cyclicals.
Commodities, however, sent mixed signals. Gold collapsed 3.66% to US$3,294.1/oz in a classic risk-on unwind. WTI crude fell 2.2% to US$62.27/bbl, reflecting easing supply concerns and demand-side doubts. Iron ore held firm, but broader metals sentiment was muted.
Currencies were active. The AUD slipped 0.16% to 63.86 US cents, struggling against a resurgent greenback. The yen was hammered, down 1.37%, while the euro and sterling also weakened.
US 10-year yields dipped slightly (-0.36%) to 4.385%, while short-end yields rose, tightening the curve again.
The Play Today
Risk appetite has flipped bullish globally, but ASX traders will want to see local confirmation, especially in resources and tech. Watch uranium names after Paladin’s monster move, and energy stocks could open soft on crude weakness. Gold miners will be under pressure after bullion’s 3.7% dump.
With the AUD underperforming and global bond yields stabilising, rate-sensitive stocks (REITs, tech) could catch a bid. Eyes also on Cettire and other discretionary names after the sharp tariff-induced selloff.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Japan CPI
Wednesday: US Flash PMI
Thursday: UK BOE Governor Bailey Speaks
Friday: Aus Public Holiday
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
ASX Consumer Discretionary Sector
ASX Consumer Discretionary XDJ (Source: TradingView)
