ASX Market Outlook: Pre-Open Brief
ASX Stock Market Outlook
ASX SPI 200 Index Futures are up 0.21% this morning, hinting at a firmer open after a mixed but ultimately resilient overnight lead from global markets.
While US indices ended largely flat, Europe continued its advance, and commodities showed signs of stabilisation.
The ASX will open into a delicate balancing act, with investors digesting softer oil prices, a modest bounce in gold, and a currency market flashing risk signals.
Overnight Wrap
US Markets:
It was a snooze on Wall Street. The S&P 500 edged up just 0.06%, the Dow Jones gained 0.28%, and the NASDAQ 100 slipped 0.04%. Traders largely stood pat ahead of a blockbuster week of earnings — including from Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta — and crucial macro data like JOLTS job openings and GDP growth figures. The tone was cautious but not bearish.
Key stock moves included Nvidia falling 2.05% after reports that Chinese giant Huawei is ready to launch a competitive AI chip. Boeing climbed 2.44% following positive broker upgrades and supply chain improvements, pushing aerospace stocks higher.
Treasuries rallied slightly: the US 10-year yield fell 3bps to 4.21%, while the 2-year slipped 5bps to 3.69%, showing a mild flight-to-quality as traders hedge into data risk.
European Markets:
More life here. The EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.24% and the broader STOXX 600 climbed 0.50%. Healthcare stocks drove gains after positive earnings revisions, and investors welcomed news of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine — a rare geopolitical stabiliser.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 notched its 11th straight day of gains, driven by optimism in healthcare and M&A activity (Merck's SpringWorks acquisition and DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo).
Asian Markets:
A mixed bag. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.15%, weighed down by continued pressure in China’s tech sector. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.11% as investors locked in profits after a strong April rally.
China’s FTSE A50 eked out a 0.04% gain, holding steady as Chinese officials reiterated their GDP growth target and promised more stimulus if needed.
Commodities:
Gold staged a strong comeback, up 1.49% to $3,347.7/oz, supported by weaker bond yields and a softer US dollar.
Oil remained under pressure. WTI fell another 1.54% to $62.05, as worries about rising global supply and sluggish demand mount ahead of the May 5 OPEC+ meeting.
Industrial metals were firm but subdued, with copper and iron ore prices slightly higher in New York trading.
Currencies:
The Australian Dollar rose 0.36% to 0.6429.
The Japanese Yen posted a sharp rebound, gaining 0.99% against the US Dollar — notable as yen strength often signals global risk aversion bubbling beneath the surface.
The Play Today
The ASX is expected to open higher, but the upside could be capped by pressure on energy stocks following crude’s renewed fall.
Tech and healthcare sectors are likely to lead the charge, mirroring the tone in US and European markets.
The AUD/USD strength is another factor to watch — a rising Aussie dollar typically headwinds exporters but signals improving global risk appetite.
Key Themes to Watch
The US-China Tariff fight
Big Tech Earnings in the US (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft)
Australian CPI: A downside surprise could ignite rate cut speculation.
Economic Data to Watch This Week
Tuesday: Canadian Election
Wednesday: US JOLTS Job Openings, Australian CPI, Chinese Manufacturing CPI
Thursday: Japanese rate decision
Friday: US Non-farm Payrolls, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Global Market Prices
Global Markets (Source: TradingView)
ASX Communicatins Sector
Communications and Utilities have continued to stay strong and attract new interest during the recent sell-offs. Importantly they’ve caught the bid tone on the rebound as well. Defensives are back in style.
ASX 200 Communications Index XTJ (Source: TradingView)
