Israel’s War for Lasting Peace Spells Danger for Oil Supply Chains
War.
War never changes.
And war in the Middle East is seemingly never too far away. The latest flare up is between Israel and Iran. As you’ve no doubt hear, Israel has launched ‘pre-emptive’ strikes against Iran’s ability to manufacture nuclear weapons.
If this all feels a bit like the fabled and non-existent ‘weapons of mass destruction’ that Saddam Hussain was meant to have had, well, we can’t blame you.
But there’s one thing for sure.
If the current Iranian ever gets the capability to make nuclear weapons, they won’t wait long to use them on Israel.
The one thing that the Ayatolla is more passionate about than life itself, it’s the murder of Jews and the demise of the state of Israel.
Let’s just say that it’s a somewhat disturbing and unhealthy hobby he’s carrying on.
Israel isn’t interested in another cycle of tit-for-tat with Iran. Really, what’s the point of a few rockets back and forth?
The gloves are off.
After years spent grinding down Hamas and crippling Hezbollah, Israel has unleashed an all-out assault straight into the heart of Iran. Nukes, military bases, even energy hubs are fair game.
Why now?
Stock Market Correction 2025: Guide to Navigating the Sell-Off
In Case You Missed It...
Unless you've been living under a rock or binge-watching your favourite series non-stop, you've probably noticed your portfolio looks a bit worse for wear lately. Global stock markets, including our beloved ASX, have taken a significant tumble.
The S&P 500 is now firmly in correction territory, down more than 10%, tech stocks are being hit hardest, and volatility has surged like an adrenaline junkie jumping from a plane.
It's time to sit up and pay attention because these moves scream risk and opportunity in the same breath. It gets confusing out there. We'll get into the key indicators to watch and how we'll know if this is turning around or if the pain is just beginning.
But first, let's get into exactly what's happening so we know which developments we need to watch most closely.
Why the Stock Market is Falling: Interest Rates, Inflation, and Trump's Tariffs
Markets are freaking out for a few solid reasons. Central banks, especially the Fed, are still playing tough on interest rates, signalling ‘higher for longer’ isn't just a catchy slogan.
Gone are the good old days of Draghi's 'Whatever it takes'. We're in upside-down land now.
Boring to Brilliant: ASX's Automotive Winner From Trump’s Tariff Tantrum
Trump is Back Baby!
Not to toot our own horn, but TheMarketsIQ called his return just before the election here. That's right. We were the only ones.
OK. Enough hyperbole.
The result wasn't entirely surprising. As we mentioned, "...the best indication of a Trump victory is the betting odds. Polymarket has Trump with a 57.6% chance of victory."
If you want to see what people value, watch how they spend their money. And what better use case than election betting. The polls indicated a closely contested election.
Fake poll! Sad!
We found out in 2016 how wrong the polls are. The only surprise here is that we are still talking about them as if they mean something.
Well the Trump return has thrown the markets into a spin. We're all scrambling to position for the best winners and trying to drop the losers as elegantly as possible. No small feat, given the big change agenda we're facing.
Of all the winners and losers, we've got an established and profitable ASX player that could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. We'll talk about how that could play out, but before we get to that, let's set the scene.