Israel’s War for Lasting Peace Spells Danger for Oil Supply Chains
War.
War never changes.
And war in the Middle East is seemingly never too far away. The latest flare-up is between Israel and Iran. As you’ve no doubt heard, Israel has launched ‘pre-emptive’ strikes against Iran’s ability to manufacture nuclear weapons.
If this all feels a bit like the fabled and non-existent ‘weapons of mass destruction’ that Saddam Hussein was meant to have had, well, we can’t blame you.
But there’s one thing for sure.
If the current Iranian regime ever gets the capability to make nuclear weapons, it won’t wait long to use them on Israel.
The one thing that the Ayatolla is more passionate about than life itself is the murder of Jews and the demise of the state of Israel.
Let’s just say that it’s a somewhat disturbing and unhealthy hobby he’s carrying on.
Israel isn’t interested in another cycle of tit-for-tat with Iran. Really, what’s the point of a few rockets back and forth?
The gloves are off.
After years spent grinding down Hamas and crippling Hezbollah, Israel has unleashed an all-out assault straight into the heart of Iran. Nukes, military bases, even energy hubs are fair game.
Why now?
Because for once, Iran’s shield of proxies is in shambles. Gaza’s resistance is a memory, Hezbollah is licking its wounds, and Syria, once a reliable conduit, is under new management.
With its old guard scattered, Iran stands more isolated than ever.
Israel’s calculus is brutal but simple. There will never be peace as long as Tehran dreams of wiping Israel off the map. The only way to stop the cycle is to break the regime’s grip once and for all. This is about erasing the threat at its source. No more shadow wars, no more cat-and-mouse.
The moment for half-measures is over.
This isn’t just about Israel, either. Washington’s watching closely, recognising that a crippled Iran puts a big dent in the entire anti-US alliance.
Russia, China, North Korea, and a few other despotic nightmares are far less menacing with a crippled Iran and a transitional and so far non-commital Syria.
The US stands to gain strategic depth across the Middle East if Israel pulls this off. But the cost could be a massive disruption to the world’s most critical oil shipping lane.
The Strait of Hormuz.
If Hormuz gets caught in the crossfire, which it almost certainly will if this drags on much longer, oil prices won’t just jump, they could triple.
That risk alone has the world’s energy markets on edge.
The US–Israel Alliance Ceases the Day
The US has wanted Iran off the chessboard for years, and now Israel’s serving up the perfect opportunity.
Israel’s first missile may have been the starting gun for a plan that’s been simmering in the Pentagon for decades.
Biden’s gone, Trump’s back in the big chair, and the White House is openly cheering Israel on.
For Trump to break cover from his stoically anti-war, anti-interventionist persona, a great prize must be on offer.
That’s to break the spine of the Russia–China–Iran–Syria–North Korea club and tilt the balance of power back in America’s favour.
That means either crushing Iran economically and militarily or regime change.
Trump appears to be taking the bait. Or at least spending an awful long time pawing at it and holding it up to the light.
It might be just naked Trump opportunism, or this may be a carefully laid plan coming to the pointy end of the execution phase.
The American military’s fingerprints are everywhere. Satellite feeds, real-time intelligence, and tanker planes topping up Israeli jets over the desert. If you spot a US Navy carrier in the Gulf right now, it’s not there for sightseeing.
This was never going to be just a surgical strike on nuclear labs.
The mission is far bigger. Washington smells blood and the possibility of regime change.
The Iran hostage crisis, from 1979 to 1981, was a major embarrassment for the US. It made the country look weak and unable to protect its own people.
It’s a sore that’s been festering away for over four decades. There are still individuals in the US government who served at that time. You can just imagine how the prospect of settling the score feels to Washington.
There are moments when the air is still. And the neighbour’s dog isn’t barking. If you shut your eyes and listen carefully, you can almost hear the chatter in the corridors of the Pentagon and the White House.
Phrases like ‘phase one’, ‘force multiplier’, ‘regime change’, ‘kinetic operations’, ‘power vacuum management’, ‘actionable intelligence’ and ‘operational tempo’ patter joyfully back and forth.
And the US politicians smile benevolently at each other, and forget their previous quarrels as an atmosphere of optimistic joy and good humour permeates the air.
Today, revenge is on the table. With cream and cherries on top.
Wipe out Iran’s regime, and suddenly Russia loses a drone dealer and oil partner, China’s Middle East ambitions stall, and North Korea watches one of its favourite customers get vaporised. The ‘axis of resistance’ turns into an axis of regret.
Sure, not everyone in Washington is keen for another Middle East adventure, but the logic is undeniable.
Degrade Iran, smash its missile factories, and send a shot across the bow of every other troublemaker in the region.
Tehran’s Response is Missiles and Panic
Iran’s answer to Israel’s blitz has been fury for the cameras, desperation behind the scenes.
Classic bumbling dictator moves.
Within hours of the first Israeli missiles, Iran let loose the largest barrage it’s ever fired straight at Israel. Hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, some punching holes in the Iron Dome. Sirens wail nightly from Tel Aviv to Haifa, but every Iranian volley just brings back an even heavier Israeli reply.
On the surface, it’s the same old exchanges these unwilling neighbours are used to. But it’s all just feeling turned up a notch. There’s an unease and tension to the situation that points to something bigger brewing.
On the ground, the damage is stacking up. Dozens are dead on both sides, and the toll in Iran’s military ranks is even worse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are losing top brass, nuclear scientists, and command centres at a pace not seen since the Iran–Iraq War.
With airbases, nuke sites, and entire oil depots in flames, Tehran’s rulers are now facing a crisis that no propaganda can spin away.
Still, the Ayatollah is trying to play both sides. Talk tough in public, beg for mediation in private.
Iranian diplomats have been shuttling to Geneva, testing the water for a pause or some kind of off-ramp if the US keeps its hands clean. They’ve threatened to walk away from nuclear treaties, but they’ve also sent back-channel signals to Oman and Qatar, floating the idea of a ceasefire if the pain gets any worse.
Iran wants to survive, but not at the cost of total humiliation.
At home, bombed-out apartments and blacked-out neighbourhoods are fuelling anger against Israel and the Iranian regime’s own failures. For now, anti-government protests have faded, but the cracks are visible.
Every day that Israeli jets roam Iranian skies, the aura of regime invincibility fades a little more.
Noticeably absent are Iran’s lackeys.
Hezbollah has taken a few potshots up north, but nobody’s eager for a full-scale regional blow-up, least of all in Beirut, where Hezbollah is still licking its wounds from its last encounter with Israel.
The Houthis in Yemen have made noise about hitting US ships, but so far, their impact on the big picture has been minimal. Iraq’s Shi’ite militias and what’s left of Syria’s pro-Iran forces are tied down or scattered, especially after Assad fled with his tail between his legs.
So Tehran stands alone, shouting defiance, backed up by words from Moscow and Beijing, but no actual reinforcements.
Israel is gambling that they can hit the regime hard and fast enough, that the support network collapses, and Iran’s leaders reliably focus on looking after their own hides rather than mounting a serious defence.
Right now, that gamble looks better by the day.
Global Reactions: Cheers, Panic, and Oil on Fire
The world’s watching this war with a mix of nervous applause and white-knuckle dread.
The Gulf states, Saudi, UAE, the usual suspects, are the most conflicted of all.
Publicly, they moan about violence and instability. Privately, they’re not too sad to see Iran getting taken down a peg. They want stability and steady oil markets, but if Iran lashes out and mines the Strait of Hormuz, nobody wins.
That narrow stretch of water moves 20% of global oil. If it closes, even for a day, oil prices could spike to triple digits and stay there.
For now, Iran’s making noise with war games, but the real ‘doomsday’ option hasn’t been triggered. Yet.
Oil markets aren’t waiting around. Brent jumped the moment the bombs started falling, and hit five-month highs as things escalated. If Hormuz gets blocked or the fighting widens, $100 oil will look like a bargain.
Iran’s oil exports are already on life support, down 90% thanks to Israeli strikes on refineries and ports. Even Israel’s taken a hit, shutting offshore gas fields in case of missile strikes. With LNG flows under threat and supply chains on edge, the risk of an energy crunch is spreading far beyond the Middle East.
Expect the Unexpected
This conflict is just getting warmed up. Israel’s signalling more strikes, targeting the brains of Iran’s military and regime. Leadership bunkers, command centres, the whole lot.
If Iran’s defences start to crumble, don’t rule out a coup or some kind of popular revolt. It’s no longer unthinkable. But the risk of escalation is just as real. Iran could go for broke, hitting US targets, leaning on Hezbollah to open another front, or making Hormuz a no-go zone.
Markets are already moving. Oil and gas stocks are volatile. Every headline out of the Gulf is another catalyst.
If Hormuz really gets jammed or Iran’s oil stays offline, inflation comes roaring back, rate cuts vanish, and central banks scramble. Airlines, shippers, and anything exposed to fuel feel the pain all the way down.
Safe havens like gold and the US dollar are quietly surging in the background, just in case.
But don’t forget defence and cyber.
Israel’s going to need a new arsenal, and the Gulf monarchies aren’t going to skimp on protection. Every missile fired is another payday for Raytheon, Lockheed, and the like. The cyber wars behind the scenes mean that security firms and next-gen tech stocks are also in play.
We can’t predict the future.
We can only prepare for the various possibilities. It’s worth now looking at scenarios like a protracted ground war between Israel and Iran that drags the US and other players into the fight. Think a 10-year conflict that leaves everyone bloodied and sorry for their part in it (Weapons of mass destruction, anyone?).
Also consider a major disruption to oil supply chains with Hormuz being rendered a dead shipping lane, and the potential for oil prices to double quickly.
There may be more willpower in Washington for this war than they’re letting on yet, and they’re already talking tough. So, strap in.
